Housing completions see marginal 2% growth in Q1

Conall Mac CoilleConall Mac Coille

Bank of Ireland’s chief economist Conall Mac Coille offers some encouraging insight into homebuilding activity in Ireland in the first quarter.

This morning’s (24 April) CSO data shows residential dwellings completions were 5,938 in the first quarter of 2025, up 2% on the year.

Whilst a marginal improvement, the completions data have clearly not accelerated in line with the surge in commencements to 69,000 in 2024, artificially inflated by developers rushing to take advantage of temporary waivers on local authority and water infrastructure charges.

“This morning’s CSO data shows there were 5,938 completions in Q1 2025, up only marginally, by 2% on the year”

That said, the ‘4Dublin Housing Supply Pipeline’ figures point to a marked pick-up in homebuilding activity in 2024, at least in the capital.

So whilst we will likely need to revise down our forecast for dwellings completions in 2025 to below 40,000 units, a pick-up  from the 30,300 in 2024 is still likely.

Building for tomorrow

Residential dwellings completions see marginal growth in Q1 2025: This morning’s CSO data show there were 5,938 completions in Q1 2025, up only marginally, by 2% on the year. House completions were 4,157 down 2% on Q1 2024 but with apartments seeing a rebound, up 13%. The Q1 figures bring the annual total for completions over the past twelve months to 30,400, still clearly well short of housing demand. The annual total for completions has fallen back from the 32,500 peak recorded in 2023. 

Activity failing to pick-up in line with buoyant starts data: The first quarter is typically the seasonal low-point for completions. Nonetheless, the Q1 2025 completions figures add to the evidence we are not seeing a pick-up in homebuilding commensurate with buoyant starts data. BCMS commencement data indicate there were 69,000 housing starts in 2024, but were clearly artificially inflated by developers rushing to avail of temporary waivers on local authority and water infrastructure charges.   

Homebuilding still likely to expand in 2025 : Unfortunately, there is no reliable survey of the number of homes currently under construction in Ireland. However, the ‘4Dublin Housing Supply Pipeline’ figures, collected by the four local authorities in the capital, do point to some improvement. The data indicates in December 2024 there were 19,445 units under construction in Dublin, up 23% compared with Q4 2023. So at face value this data suggests that, at least in Dublin, homebuilding activity picked-up markedly in 2024.

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Conall Mac Coille
Conall Mac Coille
Conall Mac Coille is the chief economist at Bank of Ireland. He began his career as an economist in the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin, before moving to the Bank of England in September 2002. He has also lectured in macroeconomics at the Dublin Institute of Technology. During his time in the Bank of England he worked in the International and Structural divisions of the monetary analysis area before moving to the Monetary Policy Committee unit in September 2008. He was principal advisor to two MPC members in succession, Professor David Blanchflower and Professor David Miles. He has published several articles on the trade performance of the UK economy in the Bank of England's Quarterly Bulletin. In 2009, he published a paper with Professor David Blanchflower on the formation of inflation expectations in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper series. He has written extensively on the Irish economy, formerly as co-author of the ESRI's Quarterly Economic Commentary and in his current role as Chief Economist in Ireland's leading brokerage. As early as 2001, he warned in an Irish Banking Review article, that the social partnership model of wage bargaining was inappropriate within EMU and in an Economic and Social Review paper that inflationary pressure would threaten Ireland's competitiveness. He has contributed widely to the national and international broadcast media, including RTE, TV3, BBC, ITV, Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC, Newstalk and Today FM, and is regularly quoted in the Irish print media on developments in the Irish economy. His research and Davy economic forecasts for the UK economy have been quoted in the Financial Times amongst other media.

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